August Newsletter

As August draws to a close, I wanted to keep you informed about all things real estate. It's time to get ready for the annual peak of inventory in September. Buyers, that home you've been waiting for may be right around the corner. If it's a duplex in Grand Lake or a floating home in San Francisco, well then you're in serious luck - after months of marketing preparations, I'm excited to share two new listings early next week 🌟 And if you don't find what you're looking for in September, don't despair - many of my clients get the best deals of the year in October & early November; before everyone switches over to holiday mode.

Sellers, against conventional knowledge with interest rates in the 7%+ range, some homes are still getting 15-20+ offers. Take Berkeley for example. Berkeley's real estate market has been incredibly competitive lately, in large part due to extremely limited inventory. My clients had to beat out 16 offers for a condo in North Berkeley. Another property my clients wrote an offer on received 23 offers and went almost $1M over list price. In San Francisco, homes that are completely move-in ready remain competitive. Generation Real Estate's recent 70 Vicksburg in Noe Valley received 7 offers and closed $680k over asking.

It's a complex market these days. Plenty more thoughts below. Please, step into my brain 🧠

Gather around for The Danny Download.

First-time homebuyers made up a significant portion of the housing market, reaching a record-high share of 50%. HALF! This is a notable increase from the 45% in 2022 and a substantial jump from the 37% recorded in 2021, according to Zillow's housing trends report. Here is a breakdown of what people are buying:

77% of buyers purchased a single-family detached home
7% purchased a townhouse and rowhouse
7% purchased a condo

Rising interest rates haven't had the effort you might expect on the housing market. Last week, Goldman Sachs revised its home-price forecast upward. The bank had expected prices to fall for the year but now expects a small increase because supply is still so constrained.

In late 2022, mortgage companies had mass-layoffs and economists expected a housing recession. Yet though mortgage rates reached 7.31% last week, prices have barely budged, and bidding wars have returned. If the economy stays strong, mortgage rates could hit 8%. Even in that case, the "inventory crunch" would likely keep prices from falling.

📣 I’m excited to announce the first group of pop-up activations opening in Downtown San Francisco through @vacanttovibrant and the line-up of new businesses is TOP SHELF! I’m proud to have served on the advisory council in the selection process. ✨ Join us in transforming downtown vacancies into vibrant communities! 🗓 More information on locations and opening dates coming soon. Learn more about all the pop-ups ➡️ vibrantsf.org #VacantToVibrantSF

Inventory reduction of SF homes from last year. The inventory crunch is keeping prices from falling.

Average % over list price for Berkeley home sales. In comparison, the SF average is only 5% over list price. Oakland 12%. Berkeley is quite spicy right now.

On average, homes in Pleasanton are selling in 7 days!! That’s faster than anywhere in the Bay. Berkeley, Oakland and SF homes sell in 14-15 days, on average.

Less than 1 in 6 condos in SF are in contract. In South Beach, the high-rise neighborhood adjacent to tech-heavy SoMa, it’s less than 1 in 13. Time to buy a condo in SF?

For more detailed monthly analysis, please visit my website News page

Solano Stroll, one of my favorite events growing up in Berkeley, is coming up 🎉 I remember marveling at the firetruck and dreaming of being a fireman one day. Then there was the chicken skewers that I ate by the dozen. Come connect with community and 400+ vendors including artisans & makers, food, and local non-profits. There's something for everyone 🎪 Mark your calendar for September 10!

I went backpacking with two of my best friends this past month in Trinity Alps. Time deep in nature with good friends is my ultimate reset 😍 Driving for 5 hours was totally worth it when we finally arrived at this breathtaking granite basin with scattered high alpine lakes. It took four hours of walking through a scorched forest to get there 🔥🌲, which was also a grim reminder about the California reality. Grateful to share these moments and adventures with lovely souls. ✨

Fava in Berkeley. If you don't know, now you know. This lunch spot gets my mouth watering just thinking about it. I can't believe how incredibly good the food is. Delicious salads and sandwiches crammed with fresh ingredients and a hefty dose of herbs. 🌿 If you haven't been before, do yourself a favor.